2 comments on “AV – the Real Debate

  1. Analyse the figures and it becomes clear AV would help the Tories more that Lib Dem of Labour but overall it would make little difference to outcomes.

    I guess in Labour seats more lib dems are likely to make Tories their second choice (otherwise they’d just vote Labour) .

    • I have indeed analysed the figures.

      According to my analysis, there would be a slight benefit to the Lib Dems and Labour, with a slight damage to the Tories – but little difference overall. Other studies have indicated that AV would help whichever party was in the lead, thus magnifying the size of governing majorities.

      The real beneficiary could well be UKIP actually. I suspect many people don’t vote for them in general elections simply because of a perception that they would be “wasting their vote”. With AV, people who would really like UKIP to do well could put UKIP first, with e.g. the Tories second, confident that if UKIP got hammered their vote would safely go to a major party. It may well be that this is Cameron’s real fear.

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